The impact score
Every event carries a score from 5 to 95. It's a rule-based importance ranking — here is the entire rule table, no black box.
Category baselines
| Event type | Baseline |
|---|---|
| FOMC meeting | 95 |
| Earnings | 78 |
| Earnings — mega-cap (MSFT, NVDA, AAPL, AMZN, GOOGL, META, TSLA…) | 90 |
| Macro releases (CPI, PPI, payrolls, retail sales…) | 60 |
| FDA / PDUFA decisions | 85 |
| M&A events | 80 |
| Central-bank meetings (non-FOMC) | 78 |
| Product launches | 65 |
| IPO lockup expirations | 60 |
| Conferences | 45 |
| Ex-dividend dates | 15 |
Adjustments
Three rules move a score off its baseline:
- Curated override — releases we hand-weight (e.g. a January CPI) carry an explicit hint that replaces the baseline, typically 75–90.
- Live-feed confirmation — events confirmed via the weekly feed map High → 82, Medium → 58, official commentary → 40.
- Estimated dates — any (est.) date loses 8 points until its source confirms it.
The final score is clamped to the 5–95 range.
How to read it
The score is a triage tool, not a probability. It ranks how much information an event can force into the price — a 90 MegaTech earnings night moves the whole complex, a 40 Fed speaker refines the margin. 75+ events are the ones that historically reset expectations; treat anything below as context, not catalyst. The score says nothing about direction, and it is never a recommendation.